Human Development - Demography

Population by Age Groups, 1950 - 2050 (in 1000)

Note: Europe (35) includes the following countries

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2002 Revision

This is probably one of the most important charts in our analysis. It explains why the United States of America has a fundamentally "better" demographic situation than both China and Europe. While in China and Europe the gap between the elderly and the working-age population is widening dramatically, the balance is almost stable in the US (see the cross-over of red and black lines in China and Europe, as compared to the parallel increase in the USA).

In 1950, China had only some 90 million people age 50 and above; between 1990 and 2020 their number will increase from 163 to 437 million. During the same time the number of people in main working age increased from some 230 million in 1950 to about 660 million in 2010. This gives China a "window of opportunity" (see gray area). In that period between 1990 and 2020, China's working-age population will be especially large, as compared to the elderly and children. However, this is going to change dramatically (we use the word with care!): By the middle of the 21st century there will be more than 600 million Chinese age 50 and above. By contrast, the population in main working age of 20-49 years will decline from some 650 million (in 2010) to about 500 million in 2050. In other words: by 2050 China will have some 100 million people more above the age of 50 than between 20 and 49.

In Europe, the aging of the population is well known. By 2030 the continent will have the same number of people age 50 and above as in the main working age of 20 to 49; and by 2050 there will be roughly 70 million people more of age 50 and above than between 20 and 49. The serious consequences for the vitality of the society and the economy, and the disastrous impact on Europe's generation-based pension systems are already felt.

Due to its above-replacement fertility and its continuous stream of relatively young immigrants, the US is a society that will remain much younger than China and in particular Europe. This has fundamental consequences in all spheres of human life, from the economy to the social security systems, from education and science to military vigor.